Abstract
Author(s): Alshaikh A. Shokeralla
This study was carried out to compare two growth models, namely the negative exponential model and the Weibull model, to analyze cumulative maternal mortality in the Red Sea State from 2017 to 2023. These models were compared based on goodness-of-fit statistics. The findings of this current study suggest that the Weibull model may be the most appropriate for describing the accumulation of maternal mortality in the Red Sea State. These models were evaluated using the goodness-of-fit criteria (Radj2, F-test, AIC, BIC, and AICc). According to the current study, the Weibull model is the best fitting model to characterize cumulative maternal mortality in the Red Sea State, as it has the highest Radj2 and the lowest BIC and AICc values. According to Weibull model estimates, cumulative maternal mortality in the Red Sea State will increase at a rate ranging from 17231.6 cases (95% P.I.:10904.4; 23559) to 48453.5 cases (95% P.I.:37452.7; 134360) over the next four years (2024-2025). The given fitting models and some measurements in this study were implemented using the "Nonlinear Regression" tool available in Minitab 18.1, using the nonlinear least squares method. Each model parameter's starting value was obtained using the initial value conditions and the simple linear regression equation.